Scotland has faced mounting climate impacts in recent years, underscoring the urgency of adaptation In 2022, the Scottish Borders recorded the country’s highest-ever temperature, nearly 35°C (95°F), with serious consequences for public health, ecosystems, and infrastructure. This was followed in 2023 by prolonged rainfall and Storm Babet, which caused widespread flooding, several fatalities, and major disruptions to transport and power systems.
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 provides the legislative framework for the Scottish Government’s climate action, setting an ambitious Net Zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target by 2045, which is 5 years ahead of the rest of the United Kingdom (UK) due to Scotland’s greater potential for carbon sequestration.
Recently, the Scottish Government announced new proposed carbon budgets to guide the country toward its 2045 Net Zero goal. These targets aim for a 57% reduction from 1990 levels by 2026-2030 and a 69% reduction by 2031-2035, progressively decreasing Scotland’s allowed GHG emissions. By reaching Net Zero by 2045, Scotland will no longer contribute to the climate crisis.
These proposals will be analyzed by the Scottish Parliament before being voted on. Upon agreement, a new draft Climate Change Plan will be published, outlining the specific actions required to meet these targets. The Scottish Government previously relied on a system of interim and annual emissions targets to track progress toward its ambitious net zero goal by 2045. However, this approach has faced criticism and challenges due to:
- Vulnerability to variations: Annual emissions targets are vulnerable to external factors like unseasonable weather or global events such as pandemics. This volatility makes it difficult to accurately assess genuine, long-term progress on emissions reductions and can lead to targets being missed due to uncontrollable external factors rather than ineffective policy.
- Difficulty in sustained progress: Focusing on yearly targets may lead to a short-term policy approach, hindering the deep, systemic changes needed for sustained, cross-sector emissions reductions.
- Missed targets: Scotland has a history of missing its annual climate change targets. In 2024, the Scottish Government abandoned its 2030 target, a 75% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels, after its independent advisors, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), warned it was no longer achievable. The 2020 interim target was only met largely due to COVID-19 travel restrictions; it is unlikely it would have been achieved otherwise.
Shifting to Carbon Budgets: A New Framework for Climate Action
Recognizing these limitations, the Scottish Government has transitioned to a system of carbon budgets, aligning with advice from the independent CCC and practices in other countries like the UK, France, and Japan. This involves setting legally binding caps on GHG emissions over 5-year periods, offering a more stable and reliable measure of long-term progress.
Proposed Carbon Budgets: 2026-2045 Targets
The newly proposed carbon budgets guide Scotland toward its 2045 Net Zero goal with progressive reductions:
- First Carbon Budget (2026 to 2030): 57% lower than 1990 levels
- Second Carbon Budget (2031 to 2035): 69% lower than 1990 levels
- Third Carbon Budget (2036 to 2040): 80% lower than 1990 levels
- Fourth Carbon Budget (2041 to 2045): 94% lower than 1990 levels
These proposals will undergo analysis by the Scottish Parliament before a vote. Upon agreement, a new draft Climate Change Plan will be published, detailing specific actions. As of 2022, Scotland had already reduced emissions by 50% below 1990 levels, largely driven by the decarbonization of the energy supply sector, such as phasing out coal.
The CCC believes these proposed budgets are “deliverable” and that Scotland can achieve its 2045 Net Zero target, although this will require a renewed pace of emissions reduction. As of 2022, Scotland had reduced emissions by 50% below 1990 levels, largely due to the decarbonization of the energy supply sector such as phasing out coal.
Rationale Behind the Shift to 5-Year Budgets
The primary rationale for this shift is that carbon budgets provide a more stable framework, less prone to the annual variations that affected previous targets. By setting targets over 5-year periods, the government and various sectors can plan and implement more comprehensive and sustained policies for emissions reduction, allowing for some year-on-year variations in emissions while maintaining a clear long-term trajectory.
Key Aspects of Scotland’s Proposed Net Zero Plan
Scotland stands as one of the most ambitious countries globally striving to achieve Net Zero GHG emissions by 2045.
- International aviation and shipping included: The carbon budgets cover a comprehensive scope that continues to include emissions from international aviation and shipping, reflecting a holistic approach to Scotland’s climate impact.
- No carry-over provisions: There will be no provisions for carrying over emissions from one budget period to the next, emphasizing the necessity of meeting targets within each 5-year window.
- Upcoming draft Climate Change Plan (CCP): Following parliamentary approval of the budgets, a new draft CCP will be published later this year detailing specific policies and actions across all economic sectors that will be required to meet the carbon budget targets, including associated costs and benefits. The new CCP is expected to cover the period from 2026 to 2040.
The Climate Change Committee
The CCC, Scotland’s independent statutory advisors, plays a critical role in this process. Their advice underpins the proposed carbon budgets, with the CCC asserting that these targets are “deliverable” with “rapid action.” The CCC’s recommendations for achieving these carbon budgets include:
- Electrification & renewable energy expansion: A significant push toward electric technologies in transport such as EVs, buildings like heat pumps, and industry. The CCC’s pathway suggests a tripling of renewable energy capacity (wind and solar) by 2035, providing 98% of Scotland’s electricity generation.
- Energy efficiency and low-carbon heating: Urgent action to improve home insulation and support for households to install low-carbon heating systems.
- Sustainable agriculture and land use: By the later budget periods, these sectors are expected to make substantial contributions to emissions reduction, primarily through increased tree planting and peatland restoration, and diversification of income for farmers away from solely livestock farming. The CCC also stresses the need for continued support for rural communities during this transition.
- Making electricity cheaper: A key recommendation to the UK Government is to rebalance electricity prices by removing policy levies from bills to encourage the uptake of electric technologies.
Criticisms and Challenges Facing Scotland’s Climate Strategy
Despite the Scottish Government’s commitment to Net Zero, its new approach has drawn criticism, particularly from climate campaigners and opposition parties. Critics argue that scrapping the 2030 target of a 75% emissions reduction and adopting a less ambitious 57% by 2030 in the first carbon budget signals a “slowing down” of climate action. Given Scotland’s history of missing 8 out of 12 annual climate targets since 2009, there is concern that simply changing the target-setting mechanism without a substantial implementation plan will lead to continued failures.
A further concern revolves around the reliance on negative emissions technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and imported biomass. The deployment potential and effectiveness of these technologies remain uncertain. Additionally, the government chose not to fully adopt all of the CCC’s suggestions for agriculture and peatland. They cited the need to protect rural Scotland and the livestock industries, highlighting the inherent conflict in these areas.
Next Steps for Scotland’s Net Zero Ambition
The proposed carbon budgets will now undergo parliamentary scrutiny, with a vote anticipated in the autumn. The subsequent publication of the draft Climate Change Plan will be a crucial moment, as it will finally detail the policies and actions the Scottish Government intends to take to meet these new targets. The success of Scotland’s Net Zero ambitions will ultimately depend not just on the targets themselves, but on comprehensive planning and effective implementation of policies across all sectors of the economy.
